Confessions (and Predictions) of a Political Junkie

Posted: November 2, 2010 in Uncategorized

I am a political junkie.  I worked as a campaign hack and congressional aide during the early and mid-90’s and still follow every election closely.

I have also been known to bet my friends and former colleagues on election results.  Not to brag (too much anyway), but I’ve been accurate 90+% of the time since 1992. 

Here is what I think will happen tonight:  (1) Republicans will re-take the U.S. House by an impressive margin.  Gallup, which is traditionally conservative in its estimates, predict that the GOP has a huge, if not historic, edge in regards to voter energy.  Moreover, the polls showing tight races are based on turnout models from 2008 and 2006 when Democrats were energized and Republicans were demoralized to say the least.  Thus, the polls under represent what is going on with the electorate.  

Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win the House.  Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato both predict the GOP will win 55-60 seats, which exceeds the historic 1994 election (in which I participated), when Republicans won 54 seats.  I think the total will be higher.  I believe that 95% of Democrats under 50% in the polls today will lose and, when all the dust has settled, Republicans will match or exceed the landmark 1948 election when Democrats took a stunning 75 seats.  In other words, bye-bye Nancy Peloisi, hello Speaker Boehner.

Sabato, Cook and other professional politcos believe that the Democrats will still retain the U.S. Senate…maybe.  It will be close.

The GOP needs 10 seats to win the Senate.  Republicans will definitely pick up Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada.    The GOP may pick up 1-3 more Senate seats.  Races in West Virginia, California and Washington will be very tight.  Democrat candidates Joe Manchin (WV), Barbara Boxer (CA) and Patty Murray (WA) are all hovering around 50% in the polls.  As I stated, the polls are a tad bloated, so that these three are probably closer to 46-47% but independent candidates are ciphering off 3-4% leaving little room for challengers to pick-up ground.  All three may go well into the night and a few may not be decided for several weeks.

The most likely seat to flip, in my opinion is Washington where Republican Dino Rossi seems to have momentum.  The GOP challengers in West Virginia and California face uphill climbs.  The Republican candidate in West Virginia has made several gaffes and the challenger in California is fighting against voter anger at incumbent Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger, who, technically, is a Republican.

I will go ahead and go out on a limb to predict that Republicans will win all three (perhaps I am hoping against hope…especially at the prospect of Murray and Boxer going down as they are two of the most pro-abortion legislators in the country).  Thus, the GOP will capture both houses of Congress even though they may not know the results of a few Senate races for some time.

Republicans will win governor’s races in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota,  Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  Democrats will win in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York.  Considering massive redistricting in 2011, this will be a huge boon to the GOP as it prepares for 2012.

Be back tomorrow to gloat or eat it.  See you then and be sure to vote and, regardless of the party, please vote pro-life.

Grace and peace,

  1. Rick Duncan says:

    Gloat, I hope.

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